By Reginald Stanley. Posted July 16, 2026, 10:24 PM.

On July 9th 2026, the Climate Prediction Center updated their seasonal El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) diagnostic discussion to include an El Nino Advisory - highlighting the rapidly emerging El Nino conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which is likely to strengthen significantly through at least Spring 2027.

The report describes an 81 percent chance of a very strong El Nino developing by the October-December period, with very high confidence that this trend will continue into Spring of 2027. According to the Climate Prediction Center, this event would be one of the largest and most significant El Nino phenomena to have been observed since the historical record began in 1950. El Nino (especially strong El Nino events) has been associated with above-average rainfall across Southern California, in addition to typical impacts seen elsewhere around the globe. However, even strong El Nino events are no guarantee of expected outcomes; the winter of 2015-2016 featured a strong El Nino event, and yet seasonal rainfall was below-average across much of the region. Other strong El Nino events occurred in 1965-1966, 1972-1973, 1982-1983 and 1997-1998. Other impacts associated with El Nino include reduced tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Ocean, while such activity often increases over the eastern Pacific Ocean.

More detailed information can be found on the Climate Prediction Center's website, through there ENSO Diagnostic Discussion page seen here.