By Reginald Stanley. Posted December 22, 2025, 8:41 PM.

The extended period of warm, dry weather the region has been experiencing recently is set to change in a major way this week, as an atmospheric river brings widespread moderate-to-heavy rain, mountain snow above 8,000 feet and gusty winds from late Tuesday into Thursday.

Rain could begin as early as mid-day Tuesday for some locations, with chances of precipitation increasing overnight. The brunt of the storm is expected to impact the region throughout Wednesday, when the heaviest and most widespread rain will arrive. Snow levels will remain high during the storm, with accumulations occurring above 8,000 feet, although snow levels are forecast to lower to 6,500-7,000 feet by Friday morning and 5,000-5,500 feet by Saturday. Following the passing of the storm's main band on Wednesday, more scattered showers may develop in its wake on Christmas day. Strong southerly flow is associated with this storm, and is predicted to generate gusty southerly winds throughout the region. For the coasts and valleys, wind gusts from 30-45 mph are possible Wednesday, while potentially stronger gusts between 60-70 mph possible for the mountains and deserts from late Tuesday through Thursday evening. The winds are expected to impact the region during the period of heaviest precipitation as the storm's main band passes through the region Wednesday.

In addition to heavy precipitation and gusty winds, there is also the threat of flooding and debris flows in areas near and downstream from recent burn scars. Visit the National Weather Service office's website (San Diego) to stay updated on all local alerts, watches and warnings. While the heaviest precipitation will fall on Wednesday, lingering showers may continue bringing on-and-off rain on Christmas Day. As of Monday, projected rainfall totals from Tuesday through Christmas morning are between 3 and 4 inches for the coasts and valleys, with greater chances of higher rain totals to the northwest and across coastal mountain slopes. Totals taper off to between 2 and 3 inches going further south into San Diego County.

Computer forecast models are producing differing scenarios on our weather from Friday into the weekend. There is agreement that a low pressure system will develop near the Gulf of Alaska late in the week, however timing and intensity are uncertain. Depending on the movement of the low, this system may bring more precipitation late Thursday into Friday, and potentially into Sunday if conditions are favorable; otherwise scattered light showers or dry weather through the weekend.